Rentabilidad y fiscalidad petrolera en Venezuela: evaluación económica de la reforma legal

Abstract

This article analyzes the impact of the Venezuelan oil fiscal framework on the profitability of three types of projects (brownfield, offshore, and greenfield) by comparing the previous regime (2006–2026) with the reform of the Organic Hydrocarbons Law, using cash flow models and Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that in the previous framework, profitability was at 25.41% of the scenarios, influenced by distortions such as CEPEYE, which raised the government take above 90%. Under the new regime with maximum tax rates, viability deteriorates—dropping to 5.93%—while the break-even price rises to USD 78.20 per barrel. In light of this, the study considered invoking the economic-financial equilibrium clause provided for in the law, concluding that tax rates should be adjusted dynamically based on the technical complexity of the field. Consequently, this clause should serve as a structural and permanent component—rather than an exception—to ensure the viability of high-risk projects.